Thursday, 31 May 2012

Does console have a future?

(This article first published on, GamesBeat and Gamasutra)

While recent headlines such as “Game sales crash!” and “Games retail collapses!” don’t paint a rosy picture, we believe the report of the death of console games is an exaggeration. Yet an uncertain future faces those console games companies that choose not to evolve rapidly.

The great games market split: the Big V revisited

In early 2010 there was strong reaction to our views that some console games publishers were "going down a very risky the long term...they run the risk of becoming like traditional media companues. Cash generative, but declining and cost driven." So we were not surprised by the even stronger reaction last year when we said that "the games market had fundamentally split into “Value” and “Volume” markets, both by sector and geography. The two speed market this is creating may have more rapid and profound effects on the games market than it did on the media market, with meteoric rises for some and slow going for others.” We called it the “Big V”:

In the last 12 months there has been significant growth in the Volume markets in terms of revenue, profit, investment and M&A, but we’ve also seen many Value market companies trying to pivot towards Volume through both acquisition (e.g. EA/Popcap) and organic growth. If the number of requests we’re receiving from Console games companies to conduct Strategic Reviews (usually as a precursor to investment or M&A) is an indication, then some of the best in the business are trying to evolve as quickly as possible.

So it seems like a good time to look at both the opportunities and challenges facing great console games companies in the brave new world.

New order, new opportunities

The balance of power in the games market today has fundamentally changed, with games companies nobody had heard of 5 years ago coming to dominate profits, investment, M&A and headlines. In our Global Games Investment Review 2012, online and mobile games are forecast to take 50% games software revenue share at $41B by 2015F (14% CAGR 11F-15F).

Yet as discussed in our Console Games Review, console generated 48% of global games industry software revenues and 62% of total games industry revenues including hardware in 2011.

Nonetheless, the console games industry faces clear challenges (declining revenues, user cannibalization by online/mobile games, "blockbuster" investment risks, long hardware cycle etc), which the coming 8th generation console cycle might not fix. One hurdle is that where casual games were a significant driver for the 7th generation console market(>95M Wii, >10M Kinect,> 150M DS sold), today many great online/mobile games are either free or cheap on increasingly capable mass-market platforms (iOS, Android, Facebook, QQ, GREE etc). This creates a potentially significant hurdle at the casual end of the market on the basis of price/convenience. Cloud gaming (OnLive, Gaikai) is still relatively early stage, but also holds promise as a platform in its own right. So while console games might remain a large long-term niche market, the next hardware cycle might not herald a return to mass market growth.

Despite these challenges, the best console games companies have great core strengths which could enable a successful pivot to online/mobile:
  • Strong brands
  • Large installed user bases
  • Strong cashflow
  • AAA games design quality
  • Genre dominance
But perhaps the greatest advantage they possess is players trained for decades to pay for fun. This is a specific advantage which many free-to-play games companies can only dream about.

Whales are not an endangered species

In free-to-play games (social, mobile, mobile-social, free-to-play MMO) a core part of game design is the focus on user acquisition, upsell and retention. While the numbers vary from game to game, it helps to think about ≥80% of revenue coming from ≤10% of users: 

  • ≤1% of users are “Whales” who will buy every virtual item no matter how expensive to show off to their in-game friends
  • 5-9% of users are will buy one or more virtual items to speed up their achievement of specific game objectives
  • 90-95% of users will never buy anything, but add value for other users and advertisers 

As shown below in the revenue breakdown from our Social Games Review (and again these figures vary from game to game), Whales are the most important player group commercially.
Looking at the opportunity through this lens, console games companies swim in a sea of Whales, where players will pay $60 for a game they haven’t even played yet. Epic Games is a great example of a console games company that took advantage of the opportunity with Infinity Blade for iOS (over $30M revenue and which Mike Capps tells us is “still selling strongly and on top of the sales charts”). They also showed that there is still money on the table for high quality paid games despite the success of free-to-play.

So does how does Moby Dick catch Angry Birds?

The tools which great console games companies have for turning their businesses towards online/mobile games fall into three broad areas:

  • Cross-promotion: for user acquisition, upsell, retention and organic user growth. A strong core audience of organically acquired users might play longer, pay more and serve as evangelists to increase virality, lower user acquisition costs and become the bedrock of a strong online/mobile player community;
  • Game design: to cater to Whales and payers for whom game quality is a determining factor in their willingness pay for their fun; and
  • Barriers to entry: strong brands and high quality are hard to replicate, enabling category dominance in ways which might not otherwise be possible.
Looking at console games companies this way, there is much that can be leveraged to pivot from Value to Volume markets.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step (and a few questions)

While potentially attractive, the online/mobile pivot is not easy to plan or deliver. Before starting down that path, you might think about a few things:
  1. Brands: are your brands strong enough to migrate players to online/mobile platforms?
  2. Games: how could your games adapt to become great online/mobile core, mid-core or casual games?
  3. Uniqueness: how might your games stand out in a market of hundreds of thousands of apps?
  4. Accessibility: could your core games be made accessible enough for a mass market audience?
  5. Genres: could you leverage your basic game mechanics to other game genres popular on online/mobile platforms?
  6. Platforms: which online/mobile platforms could work for you, and does your team have successful experience on them?
  7. Users: could your games attract millions or hundreds of millions of users?
  8. Business model: could your games be adapted for virtual currency, virtual goods or advertising?
  9. ARPU: could your business model work with ARPU in cents rather than dollars?
  10. Costs: do you have the right cost/revenue model for online/mobile markets?
  11. Development: could you reduce development cycles and costs by an order of magnitude?
  12. Marketing integration: how could you integrate user acquisition, upsell and retention into game design and development?
  13. Live team and community management: how might you manage a user community of millions of players in real time?
  14. Geography: could your games operate across geographies and cultures?
  15. Value to Volume transition: how do you bring your team with you? Who stays focused on console? How do you balance different internal cultures under the one roof?
  16. Scalability: how do you become a business platform with scale advantages, rather than a string of hits?
  17. Buy vs build vs partner: what do you need to succeed in online/mobile, and how do you get it (organic growth, investment, M&A, partnerships)?
  18. Investment: how much financial runway do you have left, and how do you finance everything you need to do?
  19. M&A: could you deliver your pivot by merging with a leading online/mobile games company?
We’re having a lot of fun helping folks with these and other questions, and suggest that you don’t let the grass grow under your feet before answering them. The clock is ticking…

Disclaimer: This document has been produced by Digi-Capital Limited and is furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and, accordingly, Digi-Capital Limited does not accept any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. In particular, the inclusion of any financial projections are presented solely for illustrative purposes and do not constitute a forecast. The recipient should independently review the underlying assumptions of the financial projections. This document is intended for initial contact with individuals and entities known to Digi-Capital Limited. This document is intended for use by the individual to whom it is sent, it is confidential and may not be reproduced in any form, further distributed to any other person, passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of Digi-Capital Limited. In the event that you are not the recipient indicated and you have inadvertently received this document, please delete it immediately. This document does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation or invitation to purchase, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire any securities nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any investment decision should be made solely on final documentation, and then only after review of the diligence materials and consideration of all relevant risks. Digi-Capital Limited does not have any responsibility for the information contained herein and does not make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any statements, estimates or other information contained in this document.  The information contained herein, while obtained from sources believed to be reliable, is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future operating results and potential acquisitions and contracts. Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as “anticipates”, “aims”, “could”, “may”, “should”, “expects”, “believes”, “intends”, “plans” or “targets”. By their nature, forward-looking statements are inherently predictive, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements in this document will be realised. Digi-Capital Limited does not intend to update these forward-looking statements. No securities regulatory authority has approved or expressed an opinion about Digi-Capital Limited’s business prospects or any related securities. Any such securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or any other state or federal securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States of America absent registration under the Securities Act or an exemption from the registration requirements thereof. Digi-Capital Limited and any entity referred to in this document have not and will not be registered under the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended or the US Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and any related securities may not be offered or sold or otherwise transferred within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons except under circumstances which will not require Digi-Capital Limited or any associated entity to register in the United States in accordance with the foregoing laws or any other law. Digi-Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Digi-Capital Limited is the copyright owner of this document and does not grant you any licence to copy, adapt or distribute it, in whole or in part, without Digi-Capital Limited’s written permission to do so.