Wednesday, 15 September 2010

Merel to present investment review at Shanghai World Expo

This interview by Phil Elliot, ahead of Tim's presentation at Shanghai World Expo, UK Pavillion was first published by Games Industry. Biz on September 15, 2010.

New monthly columnist, Tim Merel, is to present the latest version of his Global Video Games Investment Review at this year's Shanghai World Expo, UK Pavilion - and he's offering five readers free passes to the invitation-only event.

The session and following meetings will focus on both Chinese companies and investors operating internationally, as well as international companies and investors seeking to co-operate with Chinese firms within the country itself.

"I'm grateful to have been asked to talk to some of China's greatest games companies, media companies and investors in their home country, and in particular at the spectacular Shanghai Expo UK Pavilion," said Merel.

"I'm hoping that the session and following meetings will help Chinese companies and investors to broaden their investment horizons internationally, while also providing a new way for international companies to work in partnership domestically with leading Chinese firms."

The review focuses on investment, merger and acquisition, and joint venture opportunities in videogames (including MMO, casual/social online, mobile, console, online gambling, skill based, and in-game advertising sectors) for industry players and investors (including major and independent videogames companies, private equity and venture capital firms, and major media, telecommunications and technology companies).

Tuesday, 14 September 2010

Money Games: Tencent

This article was first published by Games, on Sept 14, 2010, as part of Tim's monthly column 'Money Games'.

As the business of videogames moves ever more into the spotlight, is pleased to bring you a new monthly column from Tim Merel.  Each month he'll be examining a subject or sector of interest, beginning here with China-based company Tencent - and why it could be the biggest videogames company you might not have heard of.

Who am I?

Let me start by apologising - I used to be a lawyer, then I worked for Rupert Murdoch... and now I'm an investment banker. But - I'm also a software engineer, I write adventure stories, and I play a mean guitar, so life is a balance!

We're starting my monthly column with a profile of the greatest games company you may not know, Tencent. "No!" I hear you cry. "Surely Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, Take-Two or Zynga is the greatest?" Well, this all depends on your perspective, and when your perspective happens to be money, things change.

So who is Tencent?

To explain the praise for Tencent, let's start with some data. And again, I apologise; I tend to use a lot of data. For the innumerate, please look away now.
  • China has 29 per cent internet penetration, but 382 million users.
  • China is forecast to reach 56 per cent internet penetration (754 million users) by 2015.
  • Tencent holds dominant or leading stakes in many Chinese online/mobile markets (IM, games, eCommerce, search, mobile services).
  • Tencent's Chinese games market share was 20 per cent in 2009, forecast to hit 27 per cent by 2012.
  • Tencent's market capitalisation - which is in the order of ¥241 billion ($35 billion) with an enterprise value of 35x 2009 EBITDA in August 2010 - was greater than Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, GameStop, Take-Two, THQ, Atari, Game Group and Ubisoft combined.
So what about Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo? Okay, so Tencent is about halfway between Sony and Nintendo's market caps, and nowhere near as large as Microsoft. But (a) we're talking about game software not hardware and (b) Sony and Microsoft do a couple of other things too.  

Tencent's integrated model is where the market is headed

Tencent generates around a 50 per cent operating margin. Online/mobile games (MMO, board & chess, casual/social) generate more than 40 per cent of its revenue. Tencent's business model appears to be migrating from virtual items (higher Average Revenue per User) to subscriptions (short term revenue reduction, but lower volatility), which is a reversal of the trend they started. Expect to see the same thing happening in Western markets in 12-18 months time, which is roughly the lag between China's pioneers and the West's followers. Of great importance, Tencent has an integrated business model with upgrades and privileges across online, mobile and offline (not just games), delivering a significant advantage for customer acquisition, development and retention. It capitalises on enhanced capabilities to cross-promote, upsell and cross-sell. Facebook could learn a lot from them about how to make even more money.

Tencent has some natural advantages which help enormously

I like this first chart a lot, because it contrasts the growth in online/mobile games with the flat console games market, which is great if you're a pure online/mobile company like Tencent.
'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 1

The next chart helps to clarify things further, forecasting that Asia-Pacific will become the number one market by revenue, with Europe at number two and North America at number three. A very large proportion of Asia's strength comes from China - Tencent's home market - where online/mobile games account for the bulk of revenue.

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 2

Whether or not you have faith in the forecasts themselves, directionally they're correct. The videogames market is going online and mobile, with China a large part of those markets. Again, that's great if you're the leading player in online/mobile games in China.

While not going into depth on how Chinese online/mobile videogames business models work, there are a few key elements to note:
  • Community focus around the games experience
  • Active interaction with gamers to refine both user experience and commercialisation
  • Focused commercialisation based around high volume, micro-transaction subscriptions, virtual items and some advertising
  • Games as a service, not a product, with multi-year revenue streams, revenue sharing post recoupment of development budgets and continuous, low cost development through game lifecycles post-launch
The charts below help to understand Chinese online game dynamics in general.

Chinese Gross Game Revenue Profile (¥) Example*

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 3

Chinese Total Staffing per Game Profile Example*

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 4

And what does all of this produce? 49 per cent games revenue growth over the last five quarters, and around seven million peak concurrent users of Tencent's mini casual games alone. Snap your fingers, and more than the population of Ireland are playing a Tencent mini casual game - not 7 million uniques per month, 7 million uniques right now.

Tencent Quarterly Game Revenue (¥ million)

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 5
Tencent will be in your market soon, if it isn't already

Across the full Tencent games portfolio, you reach around 20 million peak concurrent users, or slightly less than the population of Australia. That's what happens when you're the number one Chinese games company.

Tencent Mini Casual Game Concurrent Users

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 6

Chinese Game Company Revenues ($ million)*

'Money Games: Tencent' Screenshot Image 7
I was lucky enough to have lunch with Bo Wang from Tencent recently, and it is clear that despite Tencent's advantages the company is actively expanding into new areas. Now annual market growth has cooled to a mere 30 per cent (from 70 per cent-plus), Tencent is looking to leverage its strengths across segments domestically and internationally. But as with all things Tencent, this isn't just talk and it isn't small. There are domestic partnerships:
  • China Unicom (fixed line, 3G, operations, "QQ Wallet")
  • Hunan TV (talent, animation, online/mobile games)
  • China Merchants Bank (financial services)
There are also international partnerships/investments:
  • Digital Sky Technologies (Facebook, Zynga, investor)
  • Vina Games (Vietnamese online games/internet)
  • MIH India Global Internet (licensed software, content & trademarks)
  • Naspers (36 per cent Tencent investor) with global reach in high growth markets
All the major videogame, technology and media companies in North America and Europe are both fascinated and slightly nervous about the major Chinese companies entering their home markets. The only advice I can give is to learn from Tencent fast, because these guys mean business and they know what they're doing. It is only a matter of time before they become as strong internationally as they are at home, so watch out!

The UK Government has asked Tim to present his Global Video Games Investment Review to 100 senior executives from videogames companies, media companies and investors at the Shanghai World Expo UK Pavilion on September 28. The session and following meetings with will focus on both Chinese companies and investors investing internationally, and international companies and investors seeking to co-operate with Chinese firms in China.

Sources: PWC, Capital IQ, Credit Suisse, Companies, *presented by Bo Wang at GDC Europe 2010